Global Market Report – January 2010

TUNA – CHUNK LIGHT

Factories in both Thailand and the Philippines operated at capacity during December in order to fulfill the large contracts confirmed for shipment before the end of 2009. This scenario was caused both by the desire of making entry on the first business day of 2010 in the hope of obtaining single duty status, as well as covering  customers’ requirements for the upcoming Lenten season. Despite an expected downturn in demand after this busiest season of the year, canners have seen increases in the prices of skipjack raw material as December progressed. Although Japanese fishing vessels reported good catching in the western Pacific, other fleets in the Indian Ocean performed indifferently in regards to the tonnage caught each day. The result was that there were a large number of transactions between canners in Thailand and the fishing fleet owners concluded at U.S. $1020 to U.S. $1050 per metric ton for skipjack raw material. This was a significant increase from the U.S. $850 to $900 per M/T, which the canners paid the fishermen in October and November.

McLane Global continues to recommend that customers take advantage of the extremely competitive offers and pricing available for canned product which is arriving at U.S, ports in the first part of the new year. Although the bottom of the market has come and gone from overseas suppliers, certain importers are still holding uncommitted supplies of finished product from positions they took for November and December shipments. Again, it remains an ideal time to cover all requirements for canned skipjack through the first quarter of 2010.

APPLES AND APPLESAUCE

The production of apple products will continue to wind down as the Chinese New Year approaches in early February. Currently, canners of solid pack apples, as well as applesauce, have already incurred increased costs for raw material. The growers in the northern regions of China have begun to see smaller yields of available raw material. The result has been that canners have raised the offering prices for canned finished products.

McLane Global is advising customers to make firm commitments for their needs through the end of the summer of 2010, as soon as possible.

ASARAGUS

Production of canned green asparagus has resumed at a steady pace as the high heat of the summer months in Peru has begun to moderate. Canners are seeing optimum yields in the fields which continue to keep the cost of raw material at relatively low levels. As demand for fresh product remains dull, raw material is currently readily available for canning. It is still expected that the canners in Peru will be seeking higher pricing from importers around the world for 2010. As previously reported the producing facilities are operating at breakeven levels, and some will require better margins in order to continue to operate. They are ultimately at the mercy of the market which must demonstrate increased demand before significant price increases are realistic.

McLane Global recommends that customers continue to take advantage of the very attractive pricing still available for canned green asparagus. This product remains one of the lowest priced vegetables on a retailer’s shelf, and demand historically increases during the cold weather months.

FRUITS

Canners in China finished their annual peach pack abruptly at the end of August which caught many buyers by surprise, as the season historically extends into early October. Contracts which were consummated for shipments from September through December have now been completed. The last arrivals for foodservice tins will be at the end of January. Going forward the only available product will be that which is in stock in the USA on a spot basis.

Although the packing of canned fruit cocktail is continuing, canners have begun to pass on moderate price increases. Product still seems to be in adequate supply, but the season will begin to taper off in the next month. Canned pears are readily available at extremely competitive price levels.

McLane Global strongly advises customers to cover all needs for canned peaches as quickly as possible. It is also advisable to be aggressive in purchasing canned pears and fruit cocktail while pricing remains at very low levels.

MANDARIN ORANGES

The canning season of mandarin oranges will end as the Chinese New Year begins in early February. Raw material in some major growing areas has become very tight. Heavy snow blanketed Anhui and Hubei provinces causing a drastic reduction in fruit suitable for canning. Some factories are almost sold out and it is going to be a very short season this year. The overall supply of raw material has been reduced this year by 50-60%. There is particular pressure on fancy whole segments due to the overall poor quality of the raw material.

McLane Global strongly advises that retail customers react to this very serious set of market conditions, and cover all their requirements for 2010, as soon as possible. We feel that although there is less pressure on broken segments, an early end to the production season can cut short any the normal stockpiling which canners might have anticipated. At this point in time, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that all sectors of the market would be well advised to cover their needs on a timely basis.

MUSHROOMS

The supply situation continues to be quite dire. The harvest of raw material in the major growing regions has been significantly reduced by an average of 40%. Farmers who suffered from unsustainably low prices for their fresh product have drastically reduced planted acreage. As a result, canners have been steadily increasing prices for finished goods over the last thirty days. This is very certain to continue as the window for packing from fresh raw material will come to an end within the next thirty days. Additionally, it is unlikely that canners will be able to stockpile any meaningful supplies of brined mushrooms for repacking as they normally do.

McLane Global continues to strongly urge customers to take decisive action in covering all requirements through the first half of 2010. Canners are very reluctant to make either large or long term commitments due their pessimism in the supply situation, and their expectation that a currency revaluation against the U.S. dollar is in the offing.

OLIVES AND OLIVE OIL

The harvesting from the new pack in Spain has been completed. The total tonnage from this year’s crop was moderately lower than the previous year. Since carryover stocks remain from the last crop, raw material pricing remained competitive to the canners. The style of table olives most adversely affected is the large sizes, particularly Queens. Stocks of olive oil being stored in tanks at the factories are in ample supply. This has led to lower prices based in Euros FOB Spain. However, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the Euro remains at near historically low levels. All offers for canned olives, as well as olive oil are being quoted by the canners in Euros. This has led to landed costs rising despite a generally favorable crop in 2009.

McLane Global recommends that customers place their requirements on an as needed basis. No significant spike on the FOB pricing is anticipated. The major question mark in the landed cost equation will be the possible fluctuation of the U.S. Dollar versus the Euro. In addition, steamship lines from virtually all origins are instituting rate increases.

PINEAPPLE

The situation of pineapple from the current crop in Thailand has remained very stable. Pricing paid to the farmers has stayed in the range of Baht 4.30, as the Thai government set a floor price of Baht 4.00 per kilo as the minimum that canners are allowed to pay the farmers. Offers for canned product from the canners have not fluctuated over the past month. The major problem facing the Thai producers is the drop in global demand which has resulted in buyers pressing for pricing below the cost of production.

McLane Global recommends that customers cover their requirements in an orderly manner, as pricing is expected to remain stable over the coming months. Additionally, the overall winter crop now underway is consistent with fresh fruit tonnage from previous years. The next hurdle may come with the summer crop which will begin in April.

Global Market Report – December 2009

TUNA – CHUNK LIGHT

The price of skipjack raw material stabilized during November in both Bangkok and General Santos, Philippines. Processors looked for opportunities to meet their requirements with relatively low raw material costs which resulted in increased orders being placed for finished goods with their production plants. The prevailing market of USD $850/ ton for main sized skipjack in Bangkok and $850 to $900 per metric ton in the Philippines is 40% lower than the canners paid in August. Fishing for tuna in the western and central Pacific continued to be good for most of the fleets operating there. Although there were fears by the fishing industry of a continual downward spiral in raw fish prices, demand has been strong from customers in the USA, hoping to catch the elusive single duty rate for January 1^st arrivals. Additionally, it was reported that a large European grocery chain stepped into the market and purchased 700 containers of retail size tins, 75% placed with canners in Thailand and the balance with canners in

McLane Global continues to strongly recommend that customers take advantage of the current very attractive offers for canned product, and cover their requirements through the first quarter of 2010, including the Lenten holidays. Although the bottom of the market has come and gone from the producers, overall price levels for finished goods remain at attractive levels from positions still held by U.S. importers. Again, it seems an ideal time to cover your needs through March 2010 deliveries.

APPLES AND APPLESAUCE

The production of canned apple products, including solid pack sliced apples and applesauce began at the end of October in the northern part of China in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces. At the outset of the harvest, conditions were near ideal with yields in the orchards better than normal. As a result, canners’ opening offers for the finished goods were actually below those of last season. There are now, however, reports of sharply increased raw material costs in the Shaanxi region, and producers there have announced price increases accordingly.

McLane Global recommends placing orders for requirements through the summer of 2010, while pricing remains very advantageous to the end users.

ASPARAGUS

The production of canned green asparagus has begun to revert to its seasonal slowdown for the summer months of January and February in Peru, as crop yields sharply decrease due to the spike in temperatures. This follows very good harvests, and high production levels in November and December. Overall, there have been no unexpected results from the recent harvesting. Price levels have remained stable, as most factories are committed for deliveries through the end of 2009. It is anticipated that canners will be looking for higher priced contracts for the finished goods for shipment throughout 2010. This is a result of their razor thin margins on existing contracts, and the weak financial status of the canned asparagus industry in Peru as a whole.

McLane Global recommends that customers continue to take advantage of the very attractive pricing still available for canned green asparagus. Demand in the USA has been on the rise, and is expected to continue during the winter months. Canned asparagus remains one of the least expensive items in the canned vegetable category.

FRUITS

As previously reported, the unsold stocks of all tin sizes of canned peaches have dwindled sharply due to an unexpected shortfall in overall production of canned peaches in China. Most canners have already sold out of foodservice sliced peaches, with U.S. importers expected to receive their final deliveries in January of 2010. In the same vein, the overall availability of retail sized tins has been dramatically reduced.

The packing of canned pears has been continuing at both optimal levels and pricing. Yields from the last crop were more than adequate and production of finished goods is on-going from the fruit held in cold storage. The canning of fruit cocktail is also ongoing. However, as peaches are an important ingredient of this item, certain canners have been forced to announce increases in their offers for the final product.

McLane Global recommends that customers react quickly in covering all of their fruit requirements through to next summer’s new canning season.

MANDARIN ORANGES

The new packing season which commenced at the end of October, and generally runs through mid January has been severely adversely affected in regard to overall tonnage of fresh fruit. It is now a certainty that the total of product processed for canning will be significantly curtailed, and shortages in supply are expected, particularly for fancy grade product. In Zhejiang Province, there is a 50-60% reduction in fruit, while the areas of Hubei and Hunan are seeing a reduction of 40-50%. In addition, the sizing of the fruit being harvested is 60% Large to Extra Large segments, which is not suitable for packing 11 oz. tins, the most important tin size in the USA market. This is putting considerable upward price pressure for raw material for small to medium sized segments, Additionally, sugar prices, used in the production of the syrup is costing producers 50% more than last year.

McLane Global strongly advises that retail customers react to this very serious set of market conditions, and cover all their requirements for 2010, as soon as possible. We feel that although not as pressing as issue on foodservice sizes, an early end to the production season can cut short any the normal stockpiling which canners might have anticipated. At this point in time, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that all sectors of the market would be well advised to cover their needs on a timely basis.

MUSHROOMS

In a situation very analogous to that of mandarin oranges, this season’s new harvest of mushrooms has been likewise negatively impacted. The most important growing region of Fujian is experiencing a decrease in total harvesting of raw mushrooms in the area of 35-40%.  Other significant growing regions of Shandong and Sichuan are seeing their crops reduced by 55-60% against last year’s totals. Another significant factor in determining overall availability is the fact that there has been a sharp reduction in the number of Chinese firms exporting to the USA.

McLane Global is urging customers to take decisive action in covering all requirements through the first half of 2010. Canners are very reluctant to make either large or long term commitments due their pessimism in the supply situation, and their expectation that a currency revaluation against the U.S. dollar is in the offing.

OLIVES AND OLIVE OIL

The harvesting of olives for both oil and table olives is continuing in Spain, Although there are no significant problems in the crop, the total tonnage will be somewhat lower than last year. Of particular note in this regard, is the smaller harvest of large sized olives, especially the Queen variety. The other major factor adversely affecting landed prices is the continuing weakness of the U.S. dollar versus the Euro. The pricing paid to the farmers is, naturally, paid in Euros, and the Spanish packers have now converted all offers to U.S. importers to this currency. Although the harvesting is expected to continue into December, the major cost components have already been established.

McLane Global recommends that customers place their requirements in an orderly fashion, as needed. No significant spike on the FOB pricing is anticipated. The major question mark in the landed cost equation will be the possible fluctuation of the U.S. Dollar versus the Euro.

PINEAPPLE

Production of the winter crop commenced in October in Thailand and the fruit supply has gradually been increasing. The peak of the harvest is expected around the end of December which is later than normal. The current field price to the farmers is running between 4.30 to 4.50 Thai Baht per kilo, which is quite low. This is due to the weak demand which canners have experienced as yet from European buyers. However, the price of empty tins was increased by 7% in the fourth quarter of this year, and a second round of price increases for tinplate has been announced for the second quarter of 2010. The Thai government has now intervened in the market, and forced the packers to hold the raw fruit price paid to the farmer, at no lower than 4 Baht per kilo. The winter harvest is expected to be in line with previous years but the summer crop next year is expected to be seriously short due to the lack of rainfall in the growing regions of southern Thailand.

McLane Global recommends that customers begin to look at their needs through the spring of 2010 when demand normally increases. In addition, it is expected that European buyers will begin to move the canned market higher once their stocks ultimately need to be replenished.

Global Market Report – November 2009

TUNA – CHUNK LIGHT

The price of skipjack raw material in the Bangkok market declined sharply during September and October from US $1400 per metric ton to US $850 per metric ton. This is a consequence of unexpectedly good fishing in the western and central Pacific during August and September despite restrictions on catching. This came as a surprise to the market, which had expected a decline in the supply of raw material. Packers who had increased their purchases during July and August in anticipation of shortages were left with high stocks of relatively expensive raw material. To offset their costs , and lower their average fish costs, packers lowered their buying prices in September. Cold storage facilities for the raw material are now full and vessels now arriving in Bangkok have no takers for their fish. Some fishing boat owners are considering stopping their fishing operations as a result of the reduction in the market price of skipjack raw material which is now below their actual cost of fishing.

M-C McLane strongly recommends that customers take advantage of the current very attractive market conditions, and cover their requirements for the first quarter of 2010. There is a consensus among the canners that the pricing for finished goods has reached its bottom. In addition, the major buyers in the USA, including the national brands, have already finalized their purchases, and the market for canned product seems to have been set.

ASPARAGUS

The production of canned green asparagus in Peru is in full swing as the growing conditions are presently at their optimum. The market for fresh asparagus remains dull which has allowed an ample supply of raw material to be diverted to the canning facilities. These conditions are expected to continue though the end of the year. This has not, however, permitted the asparagus industry in Peru to operate on a sound financial basis, due to the low selling prices of contracts and commitments being fulfilled at this time. It is a virtual certainty that the individual canners will be forced to raise their pricing levels when the next round of contracts are consummated at the beginning of 2010.

M-C McLane recommends that customers take advantage of the inexpensive pricing now available for canned asparagus.  In addition, historically, demand in the USA spikes sharply as the holiday season and the winter months approach.  As a reminder, canned asparagus is currently one of the least expensive items in the canned vegetable category.

FRUITS

Despite an ample supply of raw material, canners of peaches in China abruptly ended their packing at the end of August. They did not want to see a repeat of last year when they were forced to hold stocks of unsold inventory in their warehouses due to lagging worldwide demand for their products. At this very early point in time, most canners are nearly sold out of canned peaches. Whatever has been packed is all that is available. On foodservice sizes in particular, offers are being made by the various factories for the very limited quantities which remain uncommitted.  Retail sizes are somewhat more readily available. However, it is only a matter of time before the market begins to reflect the overall shortage of canned peaches from the 2009 crop and packing season.

Due to favorable weather conditions, and the fact that pears can be held in cold storage, the canning of pears is expected to continue until the early part of the new year. While the situation on canned pears does not match that of canned peaches, the market prices remain steady due to consistent demand from buyers in Europe and the USA.

The packing of canned fruit cocktail is also continuing, and attractive offers are still available in the market. It is questionable how long this will continue, as peaches are a major component in the production of fruit cocktail. It remains unknown how long the conditions for canned fruit cocktail will remain favorable.

M-C McLane strongly advises our customers to react quickly, and cover their requirements for canned peaches as far into the future as possible. Any stocks which remain uncommitted will disappear with any uptick in the demand for canned peaches. With the very attractive offering prices in the market for canned pears and fruit cocktail, it is to buyers’ advantage to commit for needs through the first quarter of 2010.

MANDARIN ORANGES

Packers in certain regions of China already began packing from the new crop season at the end of October. Opening prices are approximately 5% higher than last year’s pack. The total tonnage of raw material available for this year’s canning is approximately 20% below the previous pack. It is, therefore, likely that there will not be sufficient stocks to last through 2010.

M-C McLane recommends that buyers cover their needs for the first half of the new year.

MUSHROOMS

Based on the known planting for the new season, it is apparent that this will not be a favorable canning season in China. By the end of September, most mushroom growing areas have finished composting and seeding of the raw material. Following the downtrend from the last crop, the mushroom growing areas have further declined this crop. The main reason is that during the past two consecutive years, most farmers lost money cultivating mushrooms. The selling price for the raw material in the last crop was the lowest in 10 years, far below the cost of production.

While some canners in the Shandong and Sichuan regions have already announced opening prices for finished goods, the packers in Fujian province where the majority of the crop is grown and canned will not quote new pack prices until mid December. There is already concern, however, among those most knowledgeable in the industry in China, that defaults will occur on very large scale contracts. There is now a hesitancy on the part of the canners to participate in expected bid requests.

M-C McLane advises customers to keep a close watch on this market, and to react quickly when the market prices are settled at the middle of December. It is already known that there will be a significant reduction in available canned product and offers are expected to reflect the overall shortage in this year’s crop.

OLIVES AND OLIVE OIL

The new harvest in Spain and other countries in the northern hemisphere began in the middle of October. Growing conditions remained favorable as expected and the size of the total harvest is seen at this point to be very similar to that of last year. While this is good news for a major component on the cost of the finished goods, it is offset by the very unfavorable rate of exchange between the U.S. Dollar (which went into a freefall in the past two months) versus the Euro. As a result the landed costs in the USA will be noticeably higher than previous arrivals. These conditions exist for both jarred and canned table olives, as well as for olive oil.

M-C McLane suggests that customers buy as they need at this point, as the prospects of the exchange rate are speculative as we move into the future. Additionally, there is a possibility that the market may decline somewhat for large sized Queen olives as the harvest season continues.

PINEAPPLE

Although the new pack season has yet to commence, the packers in Thailand are attempting to try to lower the fruit raw material prices being negotiated with the farmers, as their initial offers for canned product are not being well received in the market. Pineapple juice concentrate is currently driving the raw material market up, as demand continues to be strong and supplies are understandably tight. As a result, the peak of the season as forecasted will begin in late November, a bit later than normal. By the end of November, packers will be in a better position to make their offers for finished product more intelligently. It has been reported by the few canners in Indonesia that they anticipate an uneventful packing season, without any shortfalls expected.

M-C McLane continues to advise clients to cover any existing requirements until January 2010 for canned pineapple from existing inventories currently in the USA. The total tonnage of raw material for this winter pack is expected to be in line with normal crop cycles. Therefore, in spite of the fact that most Thai canneries have to first fulfill orders left over from last season, it is a distinct possibility that they will, in the end, begin to moderate the offering prices for the finished product as the crop begins in earnest.

CANNED MACKEREL

The fishing season which began in January in South America came to a close at the end of September. The catch saw a vast and unexpected improvement over the summer months after a very slow start earlier in the year. This allowed the canners in Chile to build up unsold inventory stocks which may be sufficient to cover shipments through the end of this year. Additionally, this has caused the canners there to become more aggressive in their pricing, to levels which are the lowest seen in 2009. We have also seen increases both in the FOB costs, as well as in the ocean freight rates, from China. This has narrowed the gap in landed costs to only 10% for product from Asia to that from canners in Chile. As a consumer preference exists for the sizing of South American fish versus China, the price differential has become minimal.

M-C McLane recommends that customer place their orders for spread shipments through the end of the year to insure that their requirements will be met.

Global Market Report – October 2009

TUNA – CHUNK LIGHT

The current market for Skipjack raw material has shown increasing softness in the past few weeks. Demand for skipjack finished goods continues to be weak, causing excess inventory positions for the canners. In addition, overall catch of fish in the major fishing grounds has greatly improved. Skipjack raw material is currently trading in Bangkok at around U.S. $1100 per metric ton versus the $1500 per ton which we saw a month ago. There is some speculation by some traders that we may see the raw material pricing continue to slide, possibly as low as $700 to $800 per metric ton. If this scenario comes to pass, it is expected to occur by the middle of October. Historically, this leads the major branded packers to step in to take advantage of the low raw material pricing. This, in turn, would result in a rebound of the raw pricing back to higher levels.
M-C McLane recommends that customers watch this market carefully early in October in order to seize the opportunity for very competitive pricing for canned product, as the window to purchase at seasonally low prices will disappear quickly. The belief is that there is pent up demand globally, and if the branded canners buy as expected when the raw material pricing is at its low, prices for the finished goods are certain to increase from that point.

ASPARAGUS

The availability of fresh asparagus has improved as expected with the winter in Peru coming to a close. Canners are back on track to ramp up production to normal levels from October through January, as the market for fresh asparagus is still well below normal levels.
The asparagus industry in Peru, in general, continues to face serious issues despite the relative low cost of raw material. Their cost of production is at close to a breakeven point. In order to survive, it is a virtual certainty that they will be forced to raise prices for canned product when existing contracts are completed in December.
M-C McLane recommends that customers take advantage of the current low prices for canned asparagus, particularly as consumption increases in the fourth quarter of the year. Pricing of canned asparagus is now below that of all other domestic vegetables.

FRUITS

The canning season for peaches in China came to an abrupt finish at the end of August, despite a glut of available raw material. Canners made a conscious decision to basically pack to firm orders, and not to build unsold inventories which they would have to carry in warehouses in a time of slack demand from both U.S. and European buyers. Most critically affected is foodservice size product. There are still offerings available from the packers for retail merchandise for which future sales are expected.
The pack of canned pears is proceeding nicely due to optimum growing conditions, as well as, an extended packing season. Sales of both retail and foodservice packs have been steady and stocks of pear products seem to be in balance. This pack is expected to continue until January, as fresh raw material is still being held in cold storage.
The pack of fruit cocktail is continuing, and sales are below those of previous years. As peaches are the main ingredient of fruit cocktail, the packing season may be ended prematurely. At this point in time very attractive offers are still available.
M-C McLane strongly recommends that customers cover their requirement on canned peaches from contracts signed at the beginning of the season at levels below those of last year. With prices for canned pears and fruit cocktail also available below the levels of past years, we also advise customers not to hesitate in covering requirements.  As a category, all canned fruit are expected to show higher pricing as the months go by.

MANDARIN ORANGES

Although the next packing season is not expected to begin until the end of November, the early indications are that there will be a reduction in the total available raw material. As there are some carryover stocks being held by canners, no dramatic spikes in pricing for finished goods are expected.
M-C McLane suggests that customers promptly cover all requirements for the balance of 2009.

MUSHROOMS

Canners in China are currently completely sold out of retail sized product. The new canning season is not scheduled to begin until the end of November. Due to the depressed pricing levels which both packers and farmers received from the last pack, cultivated acreage of fresh mushrooms has been reduced by a minimum of 30% versus previous years. It is expected that there will be strong demand for retail product once new pack offers become available. The combination of these two factors will almost certainly result in higher prices for canned product. In anticipation of this, the only canner in India who is exporting to the USA has already announced price increases of approximately 10% on all items.
Foodservice merchandise is less severely affected, as yet, since canners have been holding stocks of brine raw material from which repacking is done. The decreased tonnage from the new crop will ultimately impact the availability of brined raw material as well. The result will be increased pricing for foodservice tins as stocks overseas are depleted.
M-C McLane strongly advises customers to promptly place orders for all requirements for the fourth quarter of this year from spot inventories which are accessible in warehouses in the U.S. at the present time.

OLIVES AND OLIVE OIL

The new harvest in countries throughout Europe is expected to commence at the end of October. Growing conditions have been favorable up to this point. In addition, canners are still holding a reasonable amount of unsold stocks in inventory. It is anticipated that the price per ton paid to the farmer will approximate last year’s level. However, the U.S. Dollar has depreciated sharply in value over the past month. As the producing countries base their sales prices on the Euro, the landed costs to customers in the USA will be noticeably higher.
M-C McLane suggests that customers take a long position on their requirements for both table olives and olive oil. There are no immediate encouraging signs that the dollar will regain any strength, at least in the short term.

PINEAPPLE

The summer pack in Thailand ended in July, with the coming winter crop expected to begin in mid-November. The rainfall which occurred between the two canning seasons has helped to improve expected yields in the pineapple fields. This should result in a reasonable quantity of available raw material. The canning industry remains cautious, however, due to a number of factors which could adversely affect the total tonnage canned. First is the prediction of an El Nino effect from September to November which would cause drier than average climate conditions across the fields in southern Thailand. Secondly, the high world price of sugar due to short production, particularly in India, could impact the cultivation of pineapple which may be converted into sugar cane, as farmers would likely see a better return on their investments. Additionally, the exchange rate of the Thai Baht versus the U.S. dollar has been very strong, and is expected to continue indefinitely.
M-C McLane continues to advise buyers to cover all requirements promptly from spot stocks through the end of the year. Nothing from the next production cycle will arrive in the United States until January 2010 at the earliest. Canners in Thailand still have existing commitments from the summer crop yet to fulfill. Based on all available information, it seems apparent that new pack pricing for finished goods will continue to increase.

CANNED MACKEREL

The fishing season in Chile was closed on September 10th and the next season will not open until January of 2010. The summer did bring an unexpected uptick in the total catch of fresh mackerel, allowing the canners to stockpile some inventory to see them through until the next canning season. Although it is unknown whether the carryover supplies will ultimately be sufficient to fulfill global demand until next year, the canners in South America have thus far maintained price levels comparable to those for product of Asia. Given the choice, most consumers prefer the quality of fish typically packed in Chile.
M-C McLane recommends that customers cover their expected requirements at the attractive price levels now available for Chilean mackerel.

Global Market Report – September 2009

TUNA – CHUNK LIGHT

The skipjack market remains steady to firm with the price of raw material which lands in Bangkok for September with sellers asking U.S. $1500 per metric ton, and packers bidding at U.S. $1450 per metric ton. Prices in the East are trading in the $1600 to $1650 per metric ton range.

Fishing restrictions, over conservation and sustainability issues, have the number of boats fishing reduced by approximately 25%. This has reduced the daily catch significantly.  The ban on the use of Fishing Aggregating Devices (FAD) from August onward in the Western Central Pacific (the global tuna industry’s largest source of raw material) and the Eastern Tropical Pacific will continue to affect raw material pricing for the next 60 days.

However, the market for finished product is still being impacted by the global economic downturn, with overall business remaining fairly dull.

M-C McLane recommends that customers purchase their immediate needs for arrivals until November. If possible, it is advisable to wait on making significant purchases until we see what the market brings in October. This would allow customers to plan for early January arrivals when the single duty quota period will begin.

ASPARAGUS

As it has been mid-winter in Peru, August was one of the coldest months on record. Asparagus production came to a halt since no raw material was coming from the fields. In the last week of August, temperatures improved and farmers saw an immediate positive effect on their plants. Raw material prices remain high, but factories are beginning to ramp up their production.

The Peruvian asparagus packers are facing severe economic difficulties due to the high raw material prices versus the low prices they hold for finished product. Several smaller plants are now considered to be at risk by their suppliers and bankers.

M-C McLane suggests that customers take a long position on canned asparagus. With the upcoming holiday seasons, coupled with higher pricing for 2010 now a certainty, we feel it advisable to maintain ample stocks.

FRUITS

The packing season for canned peaches has come to an abrupt close in China. Very unexpectedly, most canners are already sold out of sliced peaches, particularly in foodservice tins. As a result, prices have risen sharply, virtually overnight. The major factor in this scenario is the fact that last year canners produced large quantities, and were forced to carry significant inventories through to the next pack. The fruit industry therefore decided basically to pack only to firm orders, alleviating the economic hardships of storing unsold goods.

Pears are continuing to be packed and canning will proceed until January, as it is possible to maintain good quality fresh fruit in cold storage. Although it does not appear that there will be a shortage of canned pears, there will be upward price pressure since the shortage of peaches will impact pricing for all fruits.

Canners are also in the midst of packing fruit cocktail. This will continue until the end of the year, as production will proceed from frozen raw material after the fresh fruit seasons end. Although there is no immediate shortage of product, it is apparent that supplies will tighten since peaches are a main ingredient of fruit cocktail.

M-C McLane strongly advises that customers take immediate action in covering all their requirements for canned peaches as far ahead as possible. Pricing for all canned fruits will continue to increase due to the severe shortage of imported canned peaches.

MANDARIN ORANGES

The last pack of canned mandarin oranges ended in January and the next packing season will not begin until the end of November. Inventories of the last pack which canners have been holding are dwindling quickly. Available stocks have become very spotty, with some canners already sold out of various sizes and styles. As a result, price offers for existing stocks have begun to increase.

M-C McLane recommends that orders be placed immediately for all requirements. The earliest shipments of new pack goods will not arrive in the U.S. until the end of January 2010. As mandarins historically are in high demand during the upcoming holidays, it is advisable to maintain sufficient inventory levels.

MUSHROOMS

Stocks of fresh pack mushrooms are sold out for all intents and purposes. Canners in China are holding some stocks of brine pack raw material for repacking from drums. Due to slack worldwide demand this year, and depressed pricing for both raw material, as well as finished product, farmers have drastically reduced planting of fresh mushrooms which will be used for the next packing season scheduled to begin at the end of November. Cultivated acreage in China has been reduced by 30% from last year’s crop. An increasing number of canners are now in no hurry to sell canned mushrooms, preferring to store existing stocks, since they expect to receive higher prices from the next pack, which will certainly be reduced from the last one.

M-C McLane advises that customers watch this market closely, as there is a high likelihood that the softness in pricing will begin to tighten as the new pack approaches. There does not seem to be any downward pressure in canned mushrooms and it is more probable we will see some price increases from the next pack which will first arrive in January 2010.

OLIVES AND OLIVE OIL

The new harvest in Spain and other producing countries in the northern hemisphere will begin at the end of October. Product from this crop will not be ready for actual shipment until May of next year. Currently, prices are the highest we have seen in the market during 2009. The outlook, barring unforeseen adverse weather conditions, is that the new harvest will be similar in size to that of last year. Therefore, the raw material costs for table olives and olive oil should be close to those of this year. However, some upward price movement is expected due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar versus the Euro. In addition, steamship lines have already implemented general rate increases in ocean freight charges.

M-C McLane recommends that customers proceed to make purchases as needed since the prospects at this time are for a slightly higher, although generally orderly, market as we head into the new year. It is suggested to keep in mind that there is little risk of any decline in pricing as the new pack becomes imminent.

PINEAPPLE

As we reported previously, all of the canners in Thailand closed their packing facilities in July and there will be no new production of canned merchandise until the next crop season which is expected to begin at the end of October. At this time there are virtually no available stocks in the canners’ inventory.

The situation this year has been unusual. While the demand in the European markets remained weak, capacity was offset by strong demand for pineapple juice concentrate which reached the highest price in the past 5 years. The global market is still very short of pineapple juice so there is a high probability that packers will want to pack more concentrate when they restart production in October.

Compounding the bleak prospects for any quick improvement in supplies of canned pineapple from the next pack is the continuing drought in southern Thailand causing an expected shortage of fresh fruit. In addition, some of the canners were unable to satisfy all of their open commitments from 2009 prior to being forced to close as the crop season came to an end. They will first have to honor old contracts upon resuming production in the fall before taking new orders.

M-C McLane strongly recommends that customers react promptly to the adverse supply conditions as quickly as possible. We believe it to be in our customers’ best interests to purchase all requirements from any available spot inventories, as a shortage of merchandise in both the retail and foodservice sectors has become a reality. Additionally, at best, shipments from the next packing season will not arrive in the United States until the beginning of 2010, at the earliest.

CANNED MACKEREL

Due to an unexpected improvement in fishing volumes, canners in Chile have reduced prices significantly to very attractive levels. They are now close in the landed cost to that being offered from China and Thailand. This is noteworthy since there has been some consumer resistance to the sizing of the fish, as well as the origin of product from Asia.

M-C McLane recommends that customers take advantage of the very competitive offers currently available from Chilean packers, as the fishing season is expected to close by the end of September.

Market Report – August 2009

­­­­­­­­­TUNA – CHUNK LIGHT

The pricing of skipjack raw material has increased from a low of U.S. $800 per metric ton in March to $1500 per metric for July deliveries to canners in Bangkok. The canners are now seeing resistance from buyers around the world to the resulting high prices for finished product. The result has been that we are now seeing a slight decline in the prices which the fishing fleets are demanding, down to $1400 to $1450 per metric ton for skipjack raw material.

In the meantime, current rates of catch have declined in the traditional fishing grounds in the Indian Ocean, and fishing in the Seychelles is reportedly down by approximately 50%. While this would seem to point to higher pricing, the global demand for canned product remains dull, and no major swings in canned pricing are anticipated.

M-C McLane recommends that buyers cover their immediate needs going forward through the end of the fall of this year. Long term trends are not clear at this point. In addition, with the world’s economies not expected to see major recovery in the short term, and single duty in the offing for January arrivals, significant increases in pricing, although possible, are not highly likely.

ASPARAGUS

The growing season is in its winter lull in Peru. Harvests will remain extremely limited until the end of September. As a result, canners’ warehouses are virtually empty and their production lines are running only a few hours per day. No significant uptick in production will be seen until October with the first of the new season’s arrivals in November. Assuming that weather conditions behave historically, production will continue as normal through the first quarter of next year. However, canners have seen the price of asparagus raw material rise sharply from a low of $.06 per kilo to today’s price of $.45 per kilo. While this expected to moderate some as the crop improves, it is highly unlikely to return to the extremely low levels we saw in early 2009.

M-C McLane recommends purchase all requirements for the coming holiday season as soon as possible. While old contracts are still in effect, packers in Peru have already made it clear that they will demand higher pricing for 2010.

FRUITS

The packing season began at the end of July in both Europe and Asia. The initial reports are that growing conditions are quite favorable. Canners worldwide have been intent on pushing down the prices that they pay the farmers for the fresh fruit. This has been successful to a large extent, with pricing for the finished product being quoted at very attractive levels. The first arrivals from the new canning season are expected at the end of September, An unexpected result of the lower raw material prices is that the farmers are cutting back on the total tonnage being delivered to the canners. This may, in the relative short term, lead to a smaller pack of canned product which is already beginning to put upward pressure on pricing for the finished goods.

The new season for canned apples and applesauce will begin in October. At this point in time there are no available stocks for prompt shipment.

M-C McLane strongly recommends placing multiple orders for spread shipments for canned fruits, including peaches, pears and fruit cocktail. Opening pack pricing seems to be at its lowest point going forward, as packers are anxious to obtain firm commitments from customers.

MANDARIN ORANGES

The packing season for 2008/2009 ended in late January. The next packing season will not commence until the end of November. As a result, an increasingly number of canners have already sold out their existing inventory. Both retail and foodservice sizes are increasingly in short supply, It is becoming clear that available stocks will not be sufficient to bridge the gap until new pack begins at the end of the year. Arrivals from the next packing season will not begin until the end of January 2010, at the earliest.

M-C McLane highly recommends that customers immediately cover all requirements for canned mandarins. As demand increase during the holiday season at the end of the year, it is imperative that orders be placed without delay in order to meet the traditional increase in sales of mandarin oranges.

MUSHROOMS

The last pack of canned mushrooms in China ended at the end of April, with the new crop season not to begin until November. Canners are still producing foodservice tins from raw material which is being held in drums. The supply of this “brine pack” raw material is beginning to be depleted, and it is uncertain whether or not these stocks will be sufficient to satisfy the expected demand before the next packing season. Pricing has thus far remained stable for foodservice sizes as global demand has remained weak.

Retail size tins, on the other hand, are only packed from fresh raw material, and thus whatever stocks were in inventory from the spring pack are becoming short in the canners’ available inventories. There has already been moderate price increases for the retail tins.

M-C McLane suggests that retail buyers cover their requirements through the coming holiday seasons, as availability will become increasingly uncertain, and there is a strong likelihood of further price increases. At this time, foodservice product remains in adequate supple and we suggest that buyers continue to purchase according to their needs.

OLIVES

The next harvest season for table olives is expected to begin in September in Spain. The estimation at this time points to adequate tonnage from the fall 2009 pack. However, these newly harvested olives must be cured in tanks, and will not be ready for shipment until May of 2010. Canners are still holding what seem to be sufficient inventories of cured olives from the last harvest to cover requirements until the new pack olives are ready for shipment.

M-C McLane recommends that buyers do not hesitate to fulfill their needs, particularly at this time, as canners will experience increased demand as the holiday season approaches. In addition, a continued weakness of the U.S. Dollar, as well as expected ocean freight increases are expected to push landed costs to higher levels.

PINEAPPLE

The canners in Thailand closed their facilities in July, and there will be no production of canned merchandise in August and September. The next packing season historically begins sometime in October, but the precise timing will be dependent on the growing conditions at that time. Canners inventories are virtually depleted and they are scrambling intensely to fulfill orders for customers in both the USA and Europe which were placed last spring, and remain unshipped at this point in time. No new orders will be accepted by the producers until October, with the earliest arrivals from the next pack arriving in the USA in January 2010. Pineapple is currently the most adversely affected of all canned commodities. While retail sizes are the most severely impacted, foodservice tins are also in short supply.

M-C McLane strongly recommends that customers react to these adverse conditions as quickly as possible. We believe it to be in our customers’ best interests to purchase any available spot inventories immediately, as a shortage of merchandise in the retail and foodservice markets seem to be inevitable

CANNED MACKEREL

The fishing season for Jack Mackerel which began in January in Chile will come to an end late August or early September. While supplies have been sufficient to ease pricing somewhat for the finished product until now, it is not expected that packers will be able to accumulate enough stocks between now and the next season. Traditionally the fish packers stockpile a few million tins to bridge the gap between catching seasons. This year, however, their ability to do so is in doubt.

Chinese packers are continuing to offer product at pricing which is modestly lower than South American product, but we have seen some customer resistance to the sizing of the fish, as well as the country of origin.

SPECIALTY  VEGETABLES

Excellent quality artichoke hearts and hearts of palm are available on a twelve month a year production schedule from our packer in Ecuador. Tonnage does decline in January through March, however.

Please come back here the beginning of every month for an updated report.

-Jerry